On March 5th, 2022, Jeff gave a speech about the Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine and the global impacts to West Point Society of Savannah, GA. We have included his full speech below as a helpful resource for this ongoing crisis.
Good evening, ladies, and gentlemen. It is an honor and a privilege to be here this evening as we celebrate not only the founding of our alma mater but also the brotherhood that binds West Point graduates together from the oldest to the youngest.
I am indebted to my friend, Bruce Nead for recommending me to be your speaker. Bruce and I have known each other for nearly 50 years and our friendship epitomizes that brotherhood I mentioned a moment ago.
Normally, a Founders Day speaker would regale you with stories of how great the current young people are that comprise the Corps of Cadets. I have participated in events with cadets in recent years and would tell you that cadets today are terrific! I have even wondered if Bruce and I would be admitted today! But I really know very little beyond those brief encounters. A Founders Day speaker might also talk about the football team. Sorry can’t do much for you there either. I was excited to see them beat Missouri in a bowl game, sad when they lost to Navy, but do not have a clue about how they might to do next year.
So tonight, it will be an unusual Founders Day speech. I have been asked to talk about the challenges to our nation’s national security and more specifically Putin’s War (as I like to call it) in Ukraine. My analysis is from the vantage point of not only my 30 years on active duty but also the last 19 years working as a national security consultant for CBS Radio and Television.
Ladies and gentlemen, I fear we are now facing not only an inflection point in our history but also one of the most perilous moments since the end of the Cold War. Ironically, today is the 76th anniversary of the “Iron Curtain” speech delivered by Sir Winston Churchill on the campus of Westminster College in Fulton, Missouri at another inflection point. Many historians mark his speech as the start of the Cold War between East and West that resulted in over four decades of nuclear confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union as well as NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Churchill’s word echo to us now when he said that an “iron curtain has descended across the continent” of Europe. Putin has a similar goal.
If Sir Winston was here tonight, he might remind us of Mark Twain’s adage that “history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes…” This may be difficult for many Americans. The Cold War is ancient history, and the Berlin Wall has been gone longer than it stood.
Still make no mistake about it. As Churchill warned those assembled at Fulton in 1946, this is not just a war against Ukraine but rather an attack on democracy and the international order established at the end of World War II and Cold War. The current crisis may be the most transformational event in Europe since World War II and the most dangerous confrontation for the world since the Cuban missile crisis. Ukrainian President Zelensky also says Putin’s War is about democracy and freedom. He is correct. In terms of international law Moscow has no more claim over Ukraine than Germany has a claim over Alsace Lorraine.
But how may you ask did this war come about? Its origins did not occur over night, and Putin’s argument that Ukraine posed a national security threat to Russia are patently nonsense. In fact, Russia guaranteed the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine in the Budapest Memorandum that was signed in 1995 in return for Kiev transferring Soviet nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil to Russia.
On May 7th 2000 a mediocre former KGB LTC by the name of Vladimir Putin became President of Russia. In 2005 Putin gave a speech to the Russian people in which he described the fall of the Soviet Union as the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century. Think about that for a minute…Russia suffered over 24 million civilian and military deaths in World War II, and the greatest catastrophe is the end of the USSR? But Putin believes this while we collectively shrugged our shoulders at that moment.
Since then, Putin has pursued a three-pronged strategy. First, undermine American leadership and liberal democracy. Second, drive wedges between the United States and its NATO allies to destroy the alliance. Third, reassert Russian control over countries that comprised the Soviet Union. Putin has frequently talked about “Russky Mir,” or a “Russian World” in speeches. He has argued falsely that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people”; and that it is his mission to engineer “regathering all the Russian-speakers in different places that belonged at some point to the Russian tsardom.”
He has pursued this strategy relentlessly, and his attack on Ukraine is only one more data point in a long pattern of behavior. This includes interference in American and European elections as well as the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom. He has ordered the assassination of Russians living outside Russia using nerve gas. In 2008, Putin ordered an invasion of Georgia and seized two provinces — South Ossetia and Abkhazia — where he established puppet governments. And in 2014, Putin directed the invasion of Ukraine and the seizure of Crimea after the Maidan Revolution deposed a Moscow-friendly president. He also fomented a rebellion in eastern Ukraine that has resulted in the deaths of more than 14,000 Ukrainians in the past eight years.
Ukraine does not pose a security threat to Russia. The Lithuanian Prime Minister aptly described his specious arguments as beyond Orwell and Kafka. But it threatens Putin’s regime. If Ukraine can become a successful democracy and market economy many Russians may begin to wonder, why they should be satisfied with an autocracy that enriches oligarchs who live in opulence while they suffer?
Putin made two strategic assumptions that have now been proven totally false. First, that Ukraine would quickly collapse as it did in 2014, and Russian forces would occupy the country in a few days. That has not happened. Second, NATO would fragment and fail to mount a strong, cohesive response. That proved wrong as well, and, in fact, the Europeans not only surprised Moscow I believe they surprised us and themselves. In fact, the global reaction has been astonishing. Consider this…in a recent vote in the UN General Assembly the only supporters Moscow had were Belarus, Syria, Eritrea, and North Korea.
But Putin’s failure to quickly subjugate Ukraine raises an additional threat – he and his regime are being humiliated. As Nina Khrushcheva, granddaughter of Nikita Khrushchev observed, “ he is a small man…he is five feet six and he keeps telling everyone he is actually five feet seven”….
The Russian offensive has failed to achieve surprise and speed. So now it will result to “Mass” or the indiscriminate use of artillery, air attacks, missiles, and rockets to destroy the Ukrainian military and crush the will of the people. They have pursued such tactics before in Syria as well as Chechnya.
It may ultimately defeat the Ukrainian military, but it will never conquer the Ukrainian people. Russia may face an insurgency that goes on for decades. Ukrainian ambassador to the UN read a text message from a Russian soldier to his mother that underscores Putin’s failure. UKR forces captured his cellphone when he was killed. “We were told that would welcome us and they are falling under our armored vehicles, throwing themselves under the wheels and not allowing us to pass. They call us fascists. Mama, this is so hard.”
But we may be facing not only the physical destruction of Ukraine but the economic implosion of the Russian Federation with serious global implications. The Ruble is now worth less than a penny. The freedom of average Russians has been and is at risk – independent TV and radio stations have been closed, 7000 arrested, and the parliament is considering a law that would impose martial law.
Oligarchs have lost by some estimate over $100 billion dollars, and our best outcome may be that that Russian elites soon realize the lunacy of this war and the leader that has started it. The world is shunning Russia and its leader. Putin is now an international pariah and will remain so even if the war should end this evening.
But we also face other challenges that will persist even after Putin’s War ends.
Putin travelled to Beijing for the opening of the Winter Olympics a few weeks ago. He signed several agreements with Xi Jing ping, and they announced there was no limit to their friendship. Xi like Putin believes liberal democracy in general, and America are in decline.
The United States will need decisive action, discipline, unity, and steely determination to remain the world’s leading power for China has become a power rival. In terms of speed and scale, the rise of China has been staggering.
California has an economic output larger than the United Kingdom. BUT China’s Guangdong province had a 2021 GDP five times that of Hong Kong and roughly equal to South Korea, Canada, or Russia. China now represents half of East Asia’s economic output, and its economy is now three times larger than Japan. It is the world’s leading trading power and manufacturer. China is home to seven of the ten busiest shipping ports in the world and is a peer rival to the US in many critical technologies. China’s annual defense budget, now five times larger than Japan, is funding Asia’s most advanced and largest air, sea, and cyber capabilities.
Nothing captures this power shift better than the Fortune Global 500, which every year ranks the largest 500 companies in the world by revenue. In 1990, China had zero companies on the list. By 2002, China had only 11 companies on the list while America dominated with 197 companies. In 2021, China led the Fortune Global 500 rankings with 135 companies versus 122 for the United States.
But China has significant problems economically, demographically, and with respect to climate change. Many experts believe Chinese banks are overleveraged and face a 2008 real estate bubble. Over 350 million Chinese will be over 65 in 2050 while the overall population declines which will have enormous stress on government spending and social services. Climate change will dramatically affect Chinese future economic growth.
Friendship between Russia and China is a worry, but I believe this is a marriage of convenience. When Putin travelled to the Chinese capital no government official met him at the airport. He and Xi made a point (dismissed by the Kremlin) of not shaking hands. If you watched the Opening Ceremonies, you saw Putin sitting in a box, by himself, and looking very alone…
Russia and China have a history. As one expert said about China…historically they don’t have allies…they have vassals.
The Chinese leadership may have been surprised by the Russian invasion and appear uncomfortable. They have abstained in both the UN Security Council and General Assembly in votes to condemn Russia. They are uncomfortable about recognizing the independence of so-called breakaway provinces due to their historic arguments about Taiwan. But they are clearly watching how the West reacts as they plan for the future.
But our most important national security challenges may be here at home. Our democracy is embodied in two documents. The Declaration of Independence begins with these words, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.” It does NOT say “all Americans” so the Founders argued that all humans on this planet have these rights. Thomas Jefferson, who was the author of the Declaration, once wrote… “the last hope of human liberty in the world rests on us.”
Churchill reminded us of this as well in 1946. He observed during his speech that, “we must never cease to proclaim in fearless tones the great principles of freedom and the rights of man” that “find their most famous expression in the American Declaration of Independence.”
The Preamble to our Constitution says our goal is “to form a more perfect Union”. Not a perfect Union but rather “more” perfect. The Founding Fathers understood that in the affairs of men perfection is impossible to attain. Consequently, America has stood for liberty, freedom, equality, and human dignity since its inception, and we must do so now. If Putin ended this war today, he would continue to pursue a strategy to undermine liberal democracy and that goal is shared by the Chinese leadership.
Some may argue that America has not been one hundred per cent consistent throughout our history in living up to these values, and our failures make it impossible or even hypocritical to pursue them elsewhere now. Yes, we have supported dictators in our past and witnessed failures. We must be honest that a skein of both sin and heroism; guilt and virtue can be seen throughout our history.
We must maturely acknowledge this. American leaders have not been perfect. Consequently, autocrats around the world will trumpet that our commitment to human rights, freedom, democracy, and the rule of law are a hypocritical sham. We must prove them wrong. The American people must follow the “harder right” rather than allowing ourselves to accept “the easier wrong”. We must confidently remind ourselves that when the United States stood with people like Winston Churchill or Volodymyr Zelensky that our nation has done enormous good. The world has been a better place when America spreads the message of human freedom and supports democracy.
Consequently, I am dismayed and appalled by some of our leaders who have applauded Mr. Putin or called him a “genius”. Can anyone recall any American leader during the Cold War describing Soviet leaders in this fashion? Did any American applaud Adolf Hitler or call him a genius when he invaded Poland, Norway, or Denmark? No one on the planet enjoyed watching films of the January 6th attack on the capitol more than Vladmir Putin, and it likely encouraged him to launch his attack on Ukraine. And should he conquer Ukraine it will encourage predatory states around the globe. So, while I am not surprised that some current and aspiring American leaders applaud Putin. But I am surprised that they are not held accountable. We learned as officers that leaders are accountable for their words and actions.
While we may clearly disagree on other issues, supporting American values when they are threatened is something we can rally behind. Franklin Roosevelt during the dark days at the onset of World War II said, “our unity is our strength”. That was true then and it remains so now. This war is not about Putin. This is in the last analysis about us…
But that means each of us has a special responsibility at this difficult moment to be united in opposing this threat to freedom and democracy. You are the leaders in this community. Your friends, neighbors, coworkers, and employees know you went to West Point. You wore the uniform. You stood the watch. Your words matter.
Let me try and conclude on a more positive note because I am optimistic for three reasons. First, we are an amazingly resilient people. Look what we have gone thru in the past two years. The pandemic began in China, but the West created a vaccine and did so in record time. Despite enormous challenges our economy has grown. Yes, we face challenges, but we are Americans.
Second, I teach at a small college and believe that young Americans as well as young people around the world are amazing. We have seen hundreds of thousands of youngsters around the world demonstrating in opposition to Putin’s War.
Third, the world is rallying against Vladmir Putin and his unwarranted attack on the people of Ukraine. Consequently, President Zelensky was correct when he recently said, “light will win over darkness.”
For more on Jeff’s perspective on the war in the Ukraine you can read his most recent article on NBC THINK.