My thoughts on the Afghanistan withdrawal & evacuation

What were you doing this past Monday at 3:30 pm ET?

Maybe you were...

Teaching in a classroom or attending a meeting.
Sitting at your computer at home or in the office.
Picking up kids at school or waiting for a school bus.

I encourage you to remember where you were because it is an important and historic day and time.

On Monday, at 3:30 pm ET I was on the Gettysburg Battlefield running a leadership workshop with a group from Washington, DC. 

More specifically, I was in the Gettysburg National Cemetery where Union casualties, who fell between July 1 and 3, 1863, are buried. 

Shortly after leaving the cemetery, I received the news that the last soldier had boarded a C-17 aircraft at the Kabul airport, ending 20 years of war in Afghanistan. 

I turned to the group, shared the news, and said, “I hope you all remember that on the day we ended the longest war in American history, you stood in Gettysburg National Cemetery where Abraham Lincoln gave the Gettysburg Address.”

It was one of the most poignant moments I have experienced recently. 

Since the start of the withdrawal I have written an article for NBC News about this messy  ending, and done countless interviews asking simple, yet incredibly important questions

“What went wrong?”
“Why was this so chaotic?”
“Now what?”

As with any momentous news story, we will get more answers to these questions, and others, as time goes by. 

I strongly encourage you to remain curious, stay informed, and not to jump to conclusions too quickly. 

What we can do is analyze and discuss President Biden’s and his predecessor’s decisions and the immediate implications of them. 

There are three main thoughts I have about what we have seen over the last few weeks and how leaders can learn and act as we move forward….

1.     Revisit Your Assumptions: President Biden and his team assumed that the government and military in Afghanistan would remain, at least for the coming months and maybe a few years. This appeared to be based on the consensus opinion of our intelligence agencies. When the government fell within a few days it was clear that this assumption was completely wrong and led to severe crisis as the Taliban advanced into Kabul. 

You may have heard the phrase, “When you assume, you make an ass out of you and me.”

As leaders we may be farther from problems than we think (actually, you should just assume that you are!), leading us to make incorrect assumptions. When we base critical decisions on assumption without sufficient information the consequences can be problematic, or even tragic. We must also remember we are operating in a dynamic environment.

We must continually revisit the implicit and explicit assumptions we AND our organizations make. A strong and effective leader recognizes their ignorance and seeks to become informed before making decisions. This brings me to step 2.

2.     Gather ALL the Data: Most intelligence gathered for the withdrawal focused on Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. Kabul appeared to be safe from Taliban forces, leading to the assumption that the Afghan government would be remain stable for some time. What was missed is that the Taliban had been systematically taking over remote areas throughout the country as well as road networks and border crossings.

As a general in Vietnam once said, “If you don’t know what is important to count, you make what you count important.”

As we analyze a problem we gather data to help us make an informed decision. But we must also consider the data itself AND where the data is coming from. 

Do not depend on all the data that comes into your office. That data may be based on incorrect assumptions, or gathered from only a certain slice of your organization. It is the responsibility of the leader to seek out the data they need to make their decisions. 

For anyone who travels abroad my #1 tip is to talk to the cab, Uber, van, or limo driver who picks you up at the airport. They know exactly where to eat, what to do, places to avoid, or how to get around. 

This is how leaders should collect data. Talk to the people who have the data! Visit the factory or satellite office, talk to the janitor or the secretary, have a meeting with managers and employees who are in the thick of day-to-day operations. 

And now, thought #3…. 

3.     Own the Decision: Whether you agree or disagree with President Biden’s decision the reality is this….

We, as a country, now own this decision collectively. This step is about how we, as individuals and communities, move forward from this long war and bitter ending.

According to the latest information, nearly 20,000 Afghan refugees are now located at military installations in five states. Another 40,000 evacuees remain as bases overseas awaiting processing.

We have a moral responsibility to those who fled Afghanistan. To welcome them into our towns, communities, and schools. They helped our troops in their mission and often risked their lives to keep us, and our soldiers, safe. Just as we support our veterans, we must support these refugees and their families. 

One idea I have always held close for my children is that it is my job to create a better future for them. This is what every parent wants for their children – whether they live in America or in Afghanistan. We can help make that better future possible, and we must. 

Many local groups, non-profits, churches, and community programs are mounting efforts to support refugees from Afghanistan. PBS.org has created a helpful list of national efforts that can use our help. If you hear of opportunities to help in your local community, I hope you do so.

Reaching out and supporting people who may be different from us is a surefire way to challenge our assumptions. The assumptions we hold about ourselves, about others, and about humanity.